Net migration to the UK could rise back towards 300,000 by the end of the decade, despite recent sharp falls, according to the chair of the government’s Migration Advisory Committee, adding fresh pressure to Labour’s pledge to bring migration numbers down.
Professor Brian Bell said net migration is likely to increase again in the medium term as overseas student and worker numbers recover, even after a steep decline over the past two years.
Migration levels expected to rise again
Speaking ahead of the publication of two new committee reports, Bell said net migration could rebound from its current level of around 204,000 to roughly 300,000 later this decade.
He said such a rise would be consistent with forecasts published last month by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which expects migration to increase again after recent policy-driven declines.
Bell said a moderate bounceback was likely as the UK labour market and higher education sector adjust to tighter visa rules introduced after the post-pandemic surge.
Political pressure on Labour pledge
The comments come as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting political pressure to deliver on Labour’s election manifesto commitment to reduce net migration.
Immigration is expected to be a central issue in the next general election campaign, with ministers under scrutiny over whether recent falls can be sustained without harming economic growth or key sectors such as healthcare, education and technology.
Sharp fall after post-pandemic peak
Net migration reached a record high of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, driven largely by a surge in overseas workers and students following the Covid-19 pandemic.
The increase followed policies introduced under Boris Johnson’s government to address labour shortages as the economy reopened.
Since then, migration levels have fallen sharply. Office for National Statistics data published last month showed a 69% drop in net migration in the year to June 2025, down from 649,000 the previous year.
Fewer arrivals and more departures
ONS figures show that just under 900,000 people immigrated to the UK between July 2024 and June 2025, more than 400,000 fewer than the year before.
At the same time, emigration increased, with 693,000 people leaving the UK over the same period, up by 43,000 compared with the previous year.
The combined effect has driven net migration down to its lowest level since before the pandemic.
Family migration costs highlighted
Alongside its migration forecasts, the Migration Advisory Committee published analysis of the long-term fiscal impact of family migration.
The committee estimated that people entering the UK on partner visas are likely to cost the public finances £5.6bn over their lifetimes.
Around 51,000 people arrived in the UK in 2022-23 under family visas allowing them to live and work with their partners. The analysis found that more than half were unemployed and that each individual would have an average lifetime net fiscal cost of £109,000.
Concerns over domestic worker visas
The committee also raised renewed concerns about the treatment of overseas domestic workers, including nannies, housekeepers, chauffeurs and personal carers.
In its annual report, the committee said the true scale of exploitation under the overseas domestic worker visa route is unknown, but warned that abuse does occur and that the current system allows exploitative employers to operate with limited oversight.
The report said enforcement is challenging for practical reasons but added that stronger action could be taken if the government chooses to prioritise reducing exploitation risks.
Skilled migrants deliver fiscal boost
In contrast to family migration, the committee highlighted the strong economic contribution made by skilled workers.
Earlier this month, it estimated that skilled migrants who arrived in the UK in 2022-23 are expected to generate a net positive contribution of around £47bn to the public finances over their lifetimes.
This calculation accounts for long-term use of public services, including healthcare and education, by migrants who settle in the UK with their families.
Balancing control and economic need
The latest findings underline the challenge facing ministers as they seek to balance tighter migration control with the economic benefits provided by overseas workers and students.
With official forecasts pointing to rising migration later in the decade, pressure is likely to grow on the government to explain how it plans to meet its migration targets while supporting growth and public services.
