UK arable farmers are facing a dramatic drop in income, with losses estimated at more than £800 million following one of the country’s most challenging harvests in recent memory, analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) suggests.
The think tank reported that crop production this year has been severely affected by the hottest spring and summer on record, coupled with widespread drought. The study assessed per-hectare yields for wheat, spring and winter barley, oats, and oilseed rape, cross-referenced with Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board crop area data, and compared current farm gate prices to the ten-year production average from 2015 to 2024.
The analysis found that revenues from the five key crops are down 20% in 2025 compared with expected levels based on historical averages, amounting to an estimated £828 million loss. Oilseed rape has been hardest hit, with revenues falling by 38.4%, followed by milling oats (21.5%), milling wheat (19.6%), and feed wheat (16.1%).
This year’s poor yields follow the disastrous harvest of 2024, when extreme rainfall during the preceding autumn and winter disrupted production. While high commodity prices previously offset some losses, the ECIU notes that prices have now returned closer to their ten-year averages, meaning reduced output will directly impact farmer incomes.
Provisional figures from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) show 2025 is the second worst harvest on record for England, with UK-wide figures expected to mirror this decline.
Tom Lancaster, ECIU land, food and farming analyst, said: “This has been another torrid year for many farmers in the UK, with the pendulum swinging from too wet, to too hot and dry. With confidence in the sector at rock bottom, there is an urgent need to ensure farmers are better supported to adapt to these climate shocks and build their resilience as the bedrock of our food security.”
Lancaster also criticised delays to the relaunch of green farming payment schemes such as the Sustainable Farming Incentive, adding: “Without reaching net zero emission there is no way to limit impacts like this from making food production in the UK ever more difficult.”
David Lord, an Essex-based arable farmer and member of the Nature Friendly Farming Network steering group, described the challenges: “With costs rising faster than prices, I’m not sure how many more years like this we can take as an industry. Green farming schemes are a vital lifeline for me, helping build my resilience to these shocks whilst providing cashflow to help buffer me financially. But with the schemes closed and no clarity on their future, too many farmers are locked out, unable to access the support they need to adapt whilst facing a wider agriculture policy that does too little to build our resilience and too often works against it.”
The report precedes a long-awaited review into farm profitability by Baroness Batters, former president of the National Farmers’ Union, expected before Christmas.
A Defra spokesperson said: “Farming plays a central role in our mission to kickstart economic growth, with farmers acting as stewards for our nation’s food security. We know there are challenges in the sector and weather extremes, including prolonged dry weather, have affected harvests. We are backing our farmers in the face of a changing climate with the largest nature-friendly farming budget in history to grow their businesses and get more British food on our plates.”
