The UK government is preparing to overhaul its asylum framework, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood set to declare on Monday that refugees granted asylum in the country will no longer receive an automatic path to permanent settlement. The move represents one of the most far-reaching shifts in British asylum policy in decades and is designed to reduce asylum applications and curb small-boat arrivals across the Channel.
Under the new system, successful asylum seekers would receive only temporary protection. Their status would be regularly reviewed, and they would be returned to their home country once conditions are considered safe. At present, refugees receive a five-year status that can lead to indefinite leave to remain and, ultimately, citizenship.
Temporary Residence Model Mirrors Denmark’s Approach
Mahmood’s proposals closely track the Danish model, where the centre-left Social Democrats introduced strict asylum controls, including temporary two-year residence permits and repeated reassessment of conditions back home. The previous Danish presumption that permits would be renewed was removed, and the path to citizenship became significantly more difficult.
UK ministers admire Denmark’s results, highlighting that asylum claims have fallen to their lowest level in 40 years. Mahmood argues that the UK’s comparatively open system encourages more people to seek asylum and fuels irregular migration routes. She believes that tougher rules may prevent what she describes as the rise of “darker forces” in British politics.
Home Office Delegation Sent to Denmark to Study Restrictions
The BBC reported last week that senior Home Office officials were dispatched to Denmark to examine its system firsthand. They also reviewed Denmark’s tighter restrictions on family reunion applications, a process allowing recognised refugees to bring their spouse or children to the country. Mahmood views such restrictions as an effective deterrent and believes they could reduce incentives for irregular migration to the UK.
Political Risks and Divisions Inside Labour
The policy is expected to trigger internal debate among Labour MPs. Some on the party’s left have criticised any move toward the Danish model, arguing it echoes themes used by far-right parties in Europe. Labour MP Clive Lewis warned that progressive voters could shift towards smaller left-wing parties such as the Greens if Labour adopts harsher measures. Nadia Whittome, another Labour MP, described the proposal as a “dead end” for both values and electoral strategy.
Mahmood is expected to address her critics directly in Parliament, warning that failing to adopt firm measures could increase support for Reform UK. She is expected to say: “If you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”
Balancing Tough Policies with ECHR Commitments
Mahmood plans to highlight that Denmark implemented its strict stance while remaining within the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), a point she sees as crucial. Both she and Denmark’s immigration minister, Rasmus Stoklund, have raised concerns about “activist judges” relying heavily on ECHR protections, particularly the right to family life, in deportation cases. Mahmood intends to address these concerns in her announcement.
Reform UK and the Conservative Party argue that meaningful change requires leaving the ECHR altogether. Reform UK says it would detain and deport cross-Channel arrivals, while Conservatives maintain that only reviving their abandoned Rwanda deportation scheme can end small-boat crossings.
Government Faces Challenge of Restoring Public Confidence
Mahmood is expected to admit that the UK’s borders are currently “out of control”. Labour’s decision to scrap the Rwanda plan sparked fierce criticism from the opposition, and the government now faces pressure to demonstrate it can reduce irregular arrivals without withdrawing from international conventions.
Public frustration over migration remains high, and analysts say Mahmood’s success in reducing numbers will determine whether Labour can regain credibility not only on asylum but also on wider policy areas. With Reform UK rising in national polls and the Conservatives demanding tougher measures, the government is under intense pressure to show measurable results.
Cross-Channel Arrivals and Political Pressure
The policy shift comes amid renewed concern over Channel crossings. More than 30,000 people arrived in small boats last year, and early 2025 figures showed crossings rising again despite poor weather. The Supreme Court ruling in 2023 that the Rwanda policy was unlawful, Labour’s subsequent cancellation of the plan, and growing support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK have increased political pressure on the government to demonstrate a credible alternative.
