Special educational needs and disability (SEND) services in England are on the brink of “total collapse”, with councils warning that accumulated debts could reach £18 billion by the end of the decade due to rising demand for additional teaching support.
Without urgent structural reforms, around 59 upper-tier authorities could face effective bankruptcy by March 2028, council leaders have cautioned. The government is preparing long-delayed changes to the system aimed at controlling rising costs while ensuring more children can receive specialist support within mainstream schools.
A report published by the County Councils Network (CCN) calls on ministers to write off councils’ existing SEND debts alongside reforms to SEND appeal tribunals, though such measures are likely to be fiercely opposed by parents.
Matthew Hicks, CCN chair, said: “The system is heading towards total collapse in little over four years. This could mean families facing even longer waits for support, councils facing a level of demand that the system was never designed for, and local authorities staring down unimaginable deficits of almost £18bn.”
The Department for Education acknowledged the pressures, stating it had “inherited a SEND system on its knees” that left thousands of families struggling to access support. A spokesperson said: “We’re determined to put that right by improving mainstream inclusion so every child can thrive at their local school.”
SEND spending has soared in recent years due to steep rises in demand and the cost of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs). These plans legally entitle children and young people up to the age of 25 to support for conditions such as autism and speech or language difficulties.
The CCN report notes that EHCPs rose to a record 638,000 in 2024-25, with forecasts suggesting up to 840,000 by 2028-29 – approximately one in 20 children and young people.
“This is a level of demand with which the system was never designed to cope, and as such, parents are facing an adversarial system in which they feel they have to battle relentlessly to get assessment and support for their child’s educational needs,” the report states.
Autism, other neurodiverse needs, social and emotional health, and language and communication difficulties account for more than two-thirds of EHCPs in England, the report highlights.
Rising EHCP numbers have forced councils to increasingly rely on private specialist schools, some owned by private equity investors, at significantly higher costs. The CCN estimates 34,000 pupils are in special schools at an average annual cost of £72,000 per place, compared with £10,000 per place in mainstream schools.
Data collected from English councils earlier this year by the Guardian revealed that SEND deficits were projected at £3.2bn by March 2025, rising to £5.2bn by March 2026. The CCN report predicts these deficits will escalate to £6.6bn by March 2026, £13.4bn by March 2028, and £18bn a year later – far outstripping government funding.
March 2028 marks the end of the so-called “override” accounting arrangement, which currently allows councils to hide SEND debts off the balance sheet. Once this is removed, many authorities could be rendered effectively insolvent.
Lorna Baxter, president of the Association of Local Authority Treasurers, warned: “We often hear of the black hole in public finances but SEND deficits totalling billions of pounds are being hidden in local authority accounts. Without prompt government intervention, we risk an unprecedented local authority financial crisis.”
