The pace of grocery inflation in Britain slowed to 4.7% in the four weeks to 2 November, down from 5.2% in the prior four-week period, according to data from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar). The slowdown comes as supermarkets ramped up pre-Christmas promotions, offering incentives to shoppers already bracing for further tax rises in the upcoming budget.
Retailers’ aggressive promotion strategy appears to be one of the key factors in the inflation cooling. Worldpanel’s data show that spending on deals grew by 9.4% year-on-year during the four-week period, while spending on full-priced goods rose just 1.8%.
However, with grocery sales growth at 3.2%, which lags behind inflation, it suggests households are buying fewer items or opting for cheaper brands and discount chains to stretch their budgets.
Which Items Are Going Up – and Which Down?
Worldpanel noted that the fastest price rises were in categories such as chocolate confectionery, fresh meat and coffee, while the largest price falls were seen in kitchen roll and toilet paper, sugar confectionery and dog food.
This pattern suggests that cost pressures remain in more essential and premium-taste categories, while basic goods and household consumables are seeing more competitive pricing and stronger promotional efforts.
Retailers and Market Shares: Winners and Losers
Discount and value chains are gaining momentum. Over the 12-week period to 2 November, Lidl’s sales grew 10.8%, making it the fastest growing physical grocer in the UK. Meanwhile, top chains such as Tesco and Sainsbury’s continued to gain market share, while Asda’s sales fell 3.9%, and its market share dropped by one percentage point to 11.6%. Among online and up-market grocers, Ocado posted a striking 15.9% growth in the same period.
Link to the Cost-of-Living Pressure & Budget Context
The grocery inflation figures come amid the broader UK cost-of-living crisis, where households have faced elevated prices for food, fuel, utilities and everyday essentials for several years. With the next official inflation figures due on 19 November and the Rachel Reeves-led budget scheduled for 26 November, the data takes on added significance for policymakers and consumers alike. Retailers are clearly aware of these pressures: Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, noted that “Christmas ads are hitting our screens … Retailers are very alive to the financial struggles some households are facing, not least ahead of this year’s budget.”
Implications & Outlook
Though the slowdown in grocery inflation to 4.7% offers some breathing room for households, underlying pressures remain. Inflation in essential food categories remains elevated, and the fact that sales growth is trailing inflation suggests shoppers are adapting behaviour—buying less, switching brands, or choosing discounters.
Analysts warn that this could be the “new normal” if macro-economic conditions remain weak, wages remain stagnant, and cost pressures—such as taxes, energy and regulatory burdens—persist. The budget later this month will be closely watched: any further tax rises or cost burdens on retailers risk reversing this modest relief by driving prices back upward.
