The United Kingdom has officially lifted a three-decade arms embargo on Armenia and Azerbaijan, signaling a sharp change in its foreign and defense policy amid a newly energized peace process in the South Caucasus. The decision comes after a major summit in Washington, hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump, where Yerevan and Baku initialled a comprehensive peace agreement.
UK officials say they will now pursue deeper security ties with both nations and help calm a historically volatile region.
The Arms Embargo and the Washington Peace Breakthrough
First introduced in 1992 under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the embargo aimed to prevent external arms flows from worsening conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh. It was a voluntary arms restriction followed by many OSCE states.
In August 2025, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, with mediation by President Trump, initialled an agreement at the White House setting a new framework for peace and bilateral relations. The accord outlines mutual recognition, security cooperation, conflict de-escalation steps, and a transit corridor (dubbed the “Trump Route” or TRIPP) linking mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan via Armenian territory.
One month after signing, observers warned the agreement’s durability remained uncertain and implementation challenges were mounting.
Why the UK Says the Embargo Is No Longer Needed
Stephen Doughty, the UK Minister of State for Europe and North America, asserted that “the rationale underpinning the OSCE’s 1992 recommended arms embargo … has fallen away,” given the recent diplomatic breakthroughs.
He added that the UK is ready to “fully lift its arms embargo on Armenia and Azerbaijan,” enabling new security partnerships and allowing both states to better defend sovereignty against hybrid and conventional threats.
The UK also plans to elevate ties with Yerevan and Baku into strategic partnerships and establish regular annual ministerial dialogues covering trade, defense, and diplomacy. During his August 2025 visits to both capitals, Doughty and UK envoys pressed for coordinated steps toward conflict de-escalation and deeper bilateral cooperation.
While the embargo lift is sweeping, individual arms exports will still undergo case-by-case licensing, subject to the UK’s strategic export and human rights criteria.
Reception: Optimism, Skepticism, and Concerns
Armenian officials welcomed the development, viewing it as validation of the peace process and a chance to diversify security cooperation beyond traditional partners. Azerbaijani media hailed the decision as diplomatic recognition of Baku’s security role in the region.
Yet the move drew sharp criticism from analysts and NGOs. Some experts argue the lift disproportionately advantages Azerbaijan, which already regained control of the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020 and consolidated military capacity thereafter. Russian military analyst Pyotr Kolchin warned that the change “will undoubtedly benefit Baku,” citing Armenia’s lower defense budgets under Pashinyan.
Human rights group Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) described London’s shift as “Britain’s gamble in the Caucasus” and warned that renewed arms flows—especially if skewed toward Azerbaijan—could worsen displacement, famine, or rights abuses without strong accountability guardrails.
Doughty responded that the UK would closely monitor the regional and domestic security environment in both countries and link export licensing to progress on human rights and transparency.
Risks and Strategic Stakes Ahead
The UK’s policy shift arrives at a delicate moment. The Washington-mediated peace framework has yet to resolve thorny issues like border demarcation, rights of displaced populations, and the legal status of the transit corridor.
The transit corridor (TRIPP), granting U.S. exclusive development rights for 99 years, has already become a flashpoint — Armenia must preserve sovereignty even while allowing movement; Azerbaijan seeks secure transit; and Russia, Iran, and Turkey seek to shape regional influence.
If arms imports tilt heavily toward Azerbaijan, the power balance may further skew, raising the risk of renewed clashes. The UK will need rigorous export oversight, diplomatic engagement, and coordination with multilateral peace monitors to mitigate boomerang effects.
Still, London believes that by moving now, it can help anchor the peace process, bolster deterrence, and offer a constructive Western role in the South Caucasus.
