The Education Policy Institute (EPI) has warned of mounting challenges for London councils as new analysis reveals a sustained decline in primary school enrolment.
Since 2017/18, nine of the ten local authorities with the steepest drop in pupil numbers are in the capital, with Westminster experiencing the sharpest fall at 15.9%. The impact has already been felt in boroughs such as Southwark, Hackney and Islington, where school closures have taken place.
Looking ahead, boroughs including Islington, Lambeth and Southwark are projected to see pupil numbers fall by 14–20% by 2028/29. According to analysts, the trend is being driven by declining birth rates, housing pressures and shifting family residence patterns.
The EPI has stressed the importance of data-driven planning, warning that councils must adapt to ensure both sustainable access to education and the financial viability of schools.
It noted that local authorities responsible for planning and funding school places will need to make difficult long-term decisions to adjust school provision and capacity.
The report underlines the urgency for coordinated planning, as falling enrolments put pressure on councils to balance efficiency with maintaining quality education in affected boroughs.
