The fertility rate across England and Wales has fallen to its lowest level since records began, continuing a downward trend that raises concerns about the long-term stability of the population.
Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the total fertility rate (TFR) for 2024 stood at 1.41 children per woman, down from 1.42 in 2023. This is the lowest rate since comparable data collection began in 1938.
For a population to remain stable without the impact of migration, the TFR needs to be around 2.1.
The decline comes despite a slight rise in the overall number of births, which increased from 591,072 in 2023 to 594,677 in 2024. However, this was outweighed by overall population growth, meaning fertility rates fell.
The figures follow confirmation that Scotland’s fertility rate has also dropped to a new record low, falling from 1.27 in 2023 to 1.25 in 2024. Updated data for Northern Ireland will be published later this year.
ONS head of population health monitoring, Greg Ceely, noted that fertility rates in England and Wales have been falling steadily since 2010. He explained that while births rose last year for the first time since 2021, population growth offset the increase, leaving fertility rates at record lows.
The ONS data reveals significant regional variations. The West Midlands recorded the highest fertility rate in 2024 at 1.59, while south-west England reported the lowest at 1.31.
London and the West Midlands were the only regions to see a year-on-year increase in fertility, while most others declined.
At local authority level, Luton in Bedfordshire had the highest fertility rate at 2.00 children per woman, followed closely by Barking & Dagenham (1.99), Slough (1.96), and Sandwell (1.91). The lowest rates were seen in the City of London (0.32), Cambridge (0.95), Brighton & Hove (0.97), and Islington (0.99).
In Wales, Newport recorded the highest rate at 1.64, while Cardiff had the lowest at 1.19.
The decline in fertility has prompted concern from policymakers. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has urged Britons to consider having children earlier, warning of the serious social and economic consequences of continued decline.
She pointed to the pressures facing younger generations, including high housing costs, rising living expenses, and an overstretched childcare system, as key reasons why many delay or reconsider starting families.
Breaking the figures down further, the ONS shows that England’s fertility rate remained unchanged from 2023 at 1.42, while Wales saw a decline from 1.38 to 1.35. Separate national-level comparisons have only been available since 2013, limiting longer-term analysis.
Alongside fertility figures, the ONS also reported that the average age of parents continues to rise. In 2024, the average age of mothers in England and Wales was 31.0 years, while for fathers it was 33.9 – both increasing by 0.1 years compared with 2023.
Two decades ago, the average age was 29.0 for mothers and 32.1 for fathers. First-time mothers in 2024 were on average 29.4 years old, while the age at second child was 31.8, with smaller gaps for third and fourth children.
Experts warn that persistently low fertility rates could have significant consequences for the UK, including an ageing population, rising pressure on public services, and long-term challenges for the economy and workforce.
The ONS is expected to release further demographic analysis later this year as the government faces increasing calls to address the financial and social barriers that deter families from having children.
