UK net migration is forecasted to decline significantly to around 200,000 by 2026, potentially causing labour shortages in hospitality and retail sectors, according to Professor Brian Bell, Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC). This predicted drop aligns with ongoing efforts by political parties, including Labour leader Keir Starmer’s recent pledge, to substantially reduce net migration over the coming years.
Net migration to the UK hit a record 906,000 in the year ending June 2023, with a figure of 728,000 recorded in the previous year. However, current provisional estimates indicate a sharp decline to approximately 431,000 for the year ending December 2024. Professor Bell expects the downward trend to continue in the short term, before rising again slightly to below 300,000 in the medium term.
Impact on Hospitality and Retail Sectors
Professor Bell highlighted potential challenges for sectors traditionally reliant on foreign labour, such as restaurants, shops, and hotels. “Hospitality and retail sectors could face significant recruitment difficulties as the number of overseas workers available decreases,” he said.
Review of Family Visa Income Thresholds
The MAC recently published a report examining the UK’s family visa system, advising against a proposed Conservative policy to raise the minimum income threshold for family visas to £38,700. According to the report, this increase could conflict with human rights obligations.
Instead, the MAC recommended lower thresholds ranging from £24,000 to £28,000, balancing economic wellbeing with family life considerations. A proposed threshold of £23,000 to £25,000 was also suggested to help families support themselves without exceeding minimum wage earnings. Lowering the threshold to £24,000 could lead to a modest net migration increase of about 1-3%.
Labour Party’s Migration Policies and Impact on Social Care
Earlier this year, Labour leader Keir Starmer refrained from setting explicit net migration targets but announced measures aimed at reducing the number of overseas workers in care roles. This includes tightening access to skilled worker visas and increasing employer-related costs.
Bell noted potential issues arising from these policy changes, particularly within social care. He explained that once legislative changes come into effect, care providers would no longer be able to recruit new overseas workers via the health and care worker visa but could hire from the existing UK workforce.
