The Dieselgate scandal has caused an estimated 16,000 premature deaths in the United Kingdom, along with 30,000 new cases of asthma in children, according to a new analysis.
Researchers also warn that a further 6,000 early deaths could occur in the coming years unless urgent steps are taken to tackle the issue.
The scandal, which came to light in 2015, involved diesel vehicles fitted with illegal defeat devices that allowed them to pass laboratory emissions tests while emitting far more pollution during real-world driving. This led to levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter that significantly exceeded legal limits.
While the United States acted swiftly by issuing large fines, mandating vehicle recalls, and forcing manufacturers to contribute to pollution mitigation funds, the response in the UK has been far less robust. Millions of diesel cars that emit unlawfully high levels of pollution are still on British roads, posing an ongoing threat to public health.
The report, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for the environmental law charity ClientEarth, focused specifically on the excess emissions caused by defeat devices. It estimated that in the UK alone:
* Dieselgate emissions have led to 800,000 days of work missed due to illness
* The resulting health and productivity impacts have cost the UK economy £96 billion by 2024
* Around 16,000 people have died prematurely due to the polluted air
* Over 30,000 children have developed asthma linked to diesel pollution
Across the UK and the European Union, the study estimates that Dieselgate has contributed to around 124,000 premature deaths and caused €760 billion (£637 billion) in economic damage. If no further action is taken, an additional 81,000 early deaths and €430 billion in losses are expected by 2040.
Health experts and campaigners argue that the UK government’s response has been insufficient given the scale of the health crisis. Many believe the government has failed to hold auto manufacturers accountable, allowing the industry to avoid responsibility while the public continues to bear the health and financial costs.
Despite having powers since 2021 to mandate environmental recalls of polluting vehicles, the government has yet to use them. A 2020 law placed a duty on the government to investigate vehicles suspected of using defeat devices, but progress has been slow. In 2024, the Department for Transport confirmed that it was examining 47 car models across 20 brands, with more investigations expected.
In stark contrast to actions taken in the US, the UK has not imposed fines on any car manufacturer over Dieselgate. Instead, legal accountability has largely fallen to individual consumers, who are now pursuing nearly 2 million claims in the High Court against 18 car manufacturers.
In 2022, Volkswagen agreed to pay £193 million to settle claims from 91,000 drivers in England and Wales. While some companies have launched voluntary recalls, these have covered only a small proportion of affected vehicles and details remain limited.
Meanwhile, the European Union introduced stricter emissions testing in 2021, but many vehicles certified between 2009 and 2020 remain on the roads, emitting pollutants well above the legal limits.
The CREA analysis is based on real-world emissions data, vehicle fleet composition, and established links between air pollution and health outcomes. It focused on diesel vehicles that exceeded emissions limits by more than double — a strong indication of the use of defeat devices. The researchers used widely accepted modelling techniques and scientific literature to estimate the resulting health impacts.
While some experts note that combining the effects of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter may overestimate mortality in certain cases, the core findings still point to a major and preventable public health crisis. A more conservative calculation would still attribute around 13,000 deaths in the UK to Dieselgate-related pollution by 2024.
Environmental and health organisations are calling on the UK government to fully enforce its existing powers, compel recalls of non-compliant vehicles, and ensure that auto manufacturers face financial penalties for their role in the scandal. The current inaction, they argue, risks prolonging the health impacts for years to come and passing the burden onto future generations.
Although the Department for Transport has stated that defeat devices are illegal and harmful to public health, campaigners remain frustrated by the lack of concrete enforcement. With mounting legal claims and increasing public pressure, the government faces growing calls to act decisively on diesel pollution and finally hold polluters to account.
