Convicted criminals, including sex offenders and domestic abusers, could soon be released from prison after serving only a third of their sentence, under controversial proposals being considered as part of a major sentencing policy review.
The plan is aimed at easing pressure on Britain’s overcrowded prison system, which Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood recently warned could reach capacity by November.
The new policy would apply to those serving standard determinate sentences — the most common type of custodial term in England and Wales — and is based on sentence length rather than the nature of the offence. This means individuals convicted of violent crimes could also be eligible for early release.
Under the proposed framework, inmates would serve a third of their sentence in prison, followed by a third on licence under community supervision, with the final third served without probation oversight.
Offenders who commit new crimes during the unsupervised phase could be returned to custody to complete the remainder of their original sentence, along with any additional time for the new offence.
It is understood that ministers are likely to approve the proposal, alongside other reforms.
A “tiered” approach will determine eligibility for release based on behaviour and participation in rehabilitation or prison work programmes. Those who demonstrate poor conduct or pose greater risks may be required to serve longer behind bars.
The proposals take inspiration from similar initiatives in the US state of Texas, which successfully reduced prison overcrowding by linking early release to good behaviour.
Other expected reforms include abolishing certain short sentences under 12 months and replacing them with more robust community-based penalties, which are believed to offer better outcomes in terms of rehabilitation and reducing reoffending.
In a further effort to free up space, the government recently limited the detention period for some recalled offenders to 28 days. The sentencing review may recommend extending this to 56 days to allow more time for rehabilitation.
The Ministry of Justice aims to reduce the prison population by 9,500 as part of an urgent response to the overcrowding crisis. Current figures show the male prison estate is already 99% full.
While the government has yet to formally confirm the changes, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson stated: “David Gauke is leading a sentencing review to ensure that we never again run out of prison spaces. We are committed to sentencing reform that cuts crime and protects the public.”
