Child poverty rates are expected to increase across most of the UK by 2029, with Scotland being the only exception, according to new analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF). The research highlights significant disparities in poverty trends, largely attributed to Scotland’s progressive welfare policies.
Despite Labour’s commitment to an “ambitious strategy” for reducing child poverty, the JRF projects that rates will climb in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland under current economic conditions. Scotland, however, is predicted to see a decline, thanks to its more generous child benefits and plans to scrap the controversial two-child benefit limit.
Scotland’s Welfare Policies Reduce Child Poverty
The JRF’s projections suggest that by 2029, child poverty rates will reach 31.5% in England, 34.4% in Wales, and 26.2% in Northern Ireland, while Scotland’s rate is expected to fall to 21.8%. The gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK is expected to widen, with Scottish children experiencing a 10-percentage-point lower poverty rate compared to their English counterparts.
Scotland’s success is largely attributed to its Scottish Child Payment, a direct financial support program for low-income families. Introduced in 2021, the benefit now provides £26.70 per week to eligible children, with 330,000 young people benefiting from the policy. Additionally, the Scottish government has committed to abolishing the two-child cap by 2026, a move expected to lift thousands of children out of poverty.
Calls for UK Government Action on Social Security Reform
The JRF warns that the UK government cannot rely solely on economic growth to improve living standards for low-income families. Instead, it must implement structural reforms to rebuild the social security system.
JRF’s chief executive, Paul Kissack, stressed the urgency of policy changes, stating:
“Any credible child poverty strategy must include policies that rebuild the tattered social security system. The wellbeing of millions of children depends on that. And so do the government’s wider ambitions for improved living standards and opportunity.”
The UK government plans to unveil a 10-year poverty strategy this summer, but campaigners fear it may avoid costly but necessary reforms, such as abolishing the two-child benefit cap. Meanwhile, planned cuts to incapacity benefits could exacerbate child poverty, experts warn.
Government’s Response and Next Steps
A UK government spokesperson defended its approach, highlighting increases in the living wage, benefit uprating, and changes to Universal Credit repayments as measures designed to ease financial strain on families.
“No child should be in poverty – that’s why our ministerial taskforce is exploring all levers available across government to give children across the United Kingdom the best start in life.”
However, Scotland’s Social Justice Secretary, Shirley-Anne Somerville, urged Westminster to follow Scotland’s lead, calling the JRF report a “wake-up call”:
“[The report] shows exactly what the UK government needs to do to support our efforts to end child poverty – including abolishing the two-child limit and delivering progress toward an essentials guarantee.”
