Deaths in the UK are expected to exceed births in 2026 for the first time in more than a century, marking a demographic “turning point” that could reshape the country’s economy, workforce and tax system, according to a new analysis by the Resolution Foundation.
The influential thinktank says the shift is likely to become a long-term trend, leading to a shrinking working-age population and increasing pressure on public finances unless offset by immigration.
Historic Break in Population Trends
The UK has recorded more births than deaths in almost every year since the early 1900s, with only brief exceptions during major shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. However, the Resolution Foundation says 2026 could mark the start of a permanent reversal.
In its outlook, the thinktank said the country is entering a “new era” in which deaths outnumber births by an “ever-widening margin”, effectively closing a chapter in Britain’s demographic history that has lasted for more than 100 years.
Immigration Becomes Central to Population Growth
The analysis warns that future population growth in the UK will increasingly depend on net migration, as domestic birth rates are too low to replace the population.
The shift comes at a politically sensitive moment, with major UK parties competing over plans to reduce immigration, even as the Resolution Foundation notes that net migration has already fallen sharply. Recent data suggests annual net migration has dropped by around three-quarters from its recent peak, to roughly 200,000 people a year.
Birth Rates at Record Lows
UK fertility rates continue to decline. In 2023, the total fertility rate in England and Wales fell to 1.44 children per woman, the lowest level ever recorded and well below the replacement rate of around 2.1.
The thinktank says this makes it highly unlikely that natural population growth will recover without major changes to family policy, housing affordability or childcare costs.
Economic Impact and Tax Pressure
A declining working-age population could have significant economic consequences. Fewer workers would mean lower tax receipts at a time when demand for health, social care and pensions is rising as the population ages.
The Resolution Foundation warns that this imbalance is likely to push taxes higher over time unless productivity rises sharply or migration fills labour shortages.
Migration Debate Set to Shift
Greg Thwaites, research director at the Resolution Foundation, said 2026 could become a tipping point in the national debate on population and migration.
He said the focus may shift away from arguments about whether the UK is “full” towards questions about how the country should respond to population decline and an ageing society, although migration policy is likely to remain politically contentious.
Cost of Living Driving Childlessness
Polling suggests financial pressures are a major factor behind falling birth rates. A recent survey by YouGov found that the cost of raising children is the main reason people in Britain choose not to have them, far outweighing lifestyle preferences.
This mirrors global trends. A recent report by the United Nations found that financial insecurity is now a bigger barrier to having children worldwide than a lack of desire to become a parent. Global fertility rates have been falling steadily for nearly five decades.
Political Responses and Policy Gaps
Some political parties, including Reform UK, have called for policies aimed at boosting birth rates among British families. However, experts say meaningful change would require long-term investment in childcare, housing, parental leave and job security.
The Home Office was approached for comment on the findings but had not responded at the time of publication.
