The UK could see widespread school closures and potential teacher redundancies as the number of children is projected to fall by 800,000 within the next decade, according to a new report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The IFS warns that declining fertility rates will “dramatic[ally] reshape the make-up of the UK population”, with major consequences for education and government spending. The shift mirrors historical trends: after the post-war baby boom, fertility rates plummeted from the 1960s onwards, leading to significant drops in pupil numbers during the 1970s and 1980s. A similar fall occurred in the 2000s — and the pattern is now repeating.
Between now and 2035, the number of children in the UK is expected to fall by around 7%, equivalent to 800,000 fewer young people.
Primary schools are already experiencing the sharpest declines, particularly in Scotland, Wales and London. Between 2016 and 2025, primary enrolment fell by 3% in Scotland, 4% in Wales and 9% in London, compared with just 1% across England as a whole.
Some regions face much steeper drops. Gwynedd, Wrexham and Flintshire in North Wales have seen pupil numbers fall by between 9% and 10%, while London boroughs including Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith & Fulham, Islington, Lambeth, Southwark and Westminster have recorded declines of 15% or more over the past decade.
In the early 1970s, children aged 15 and under made up about 25% of the population in England, Scotland and Wales. By 2035, this is forecast to drop to just 15%. Meanwhile, the population of over-65s continues to rise, increasing costs for pensions and the NHS. Falling pupil numbers, however, could reduce the cost of state schooling.
The IFS warns that the decline will be most severe in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but stresses that the drop in England marks “the first significant” decline in pupil numbers since the 1980s.
Luke Sibieta, research fellow at the IFS and author of the report, said: “Falls in the number of children will dramatically reshape the make-up of the UK population. That will have big implications for the education sector. Policymakers will have to decide how to respond – will they look to make financial savings through employing fewer teachers or closing schools? Or will they protect education spending and deliver smaller class sizes?”
He added: “With a dramatic fall in pupil numbers, some schools might struggle to offer a full breadth of curriculum options.”
Josh Hillman, director of education at the Nuffield Foundation, said: “Education policymakers can use the decline in the number of children in UK schools as an opportunity to improve teaching and learning quality. Achieving this will require careful decisions about teacher recruitment and retention, as well as managing the possibility of school closures.”
