Police chiefs have warned that the UK government’s new sentencing reforms could trigger a rise in crime of up to 6% within a single year.
The changes, which apply to England and Wales, aim to replace short prison terms with community-based sentences and increase early release for inmates.
The policy is designed to reduce reoffending through greater rehabilitation efforts. However, senior officers at the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) cautioned that in the short term, the measures could lead to tens of thousands of additional crimes. Official figures show that in the year to June 2025, more than 6.6 million offences were recorded across England and Wales.
Jason Devonport, the NPCC’s lead for criminal justice reform, said: “We are expecting that, whilst the programmes in the community are being ramped up by the probation service as part of the implementation plan to support offenders to rehabilitate, we expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending.”
Gavin Stephens, chair of the NPCC, added that the long-term goal remains to cut crime: “The ambition on this from everybody is that over the medium to long term, if the new approach to rehabilitation is right, it should drive it down. But there’s no doubt, in the short term, we’re working on an assumption that there’s going to be an increase.”
Under the new reforms, offenders sentenced to less than a year in prison will generally serve community-based sentences instead, and those already in prison could be released earlier than before. Critics argue that some individuals convicted of serious offences, including domestic violence and sex crimes, could be affected by early release.
To support the reforms, around 1,500 new probation officers are being recruited, but police leaders have demanded an additional £300m to £400m in government funding to meet the increased workload and monitoring demands. Devonport, who previously served as a prison governor, said: “I do believe in the sentencing bill and I believe in rehabilitation, but it has to be properly funded.”
Women’s charity Refuge also expressed concern. Ellie Butt, a representative of the organisation, said: “The risks posed by domestic abuse perpetrators cannot be underestimated. With the sentencing bill set to create a presumption that custodial sentences of less than 12 months will be suspended, it is crucial that safeguards exempting domestic abuse offenders are consistently applied.”
The UK’s prisons are already operating beyond capacity, forcing the Labour government to adopt early-release measures to ease overcrowding. However, if crime rates rise, the reforms could pose political challenges for the government.
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp criticised the plans, saying: “This revelation proves what common sense tells us: Labour’s weak and reckless approach to sentencing means many more criminals will be out on the streets, where they will commit more crime.”
Meanwhile, the House of Lords justice and home affairs committee warned that electronic tagging—expected to double under the new sentencing bill—may not deliver reliable results. The report urged the government to provide more funding for the probation service and establish a clearer strategy for electronic monitoring.
The Ministry of Justice has yet to comment on the police chiefs’ warning.
