The UK government’s early prison release scheme has seen 38,042 inmates in England and Wales released between September 2024 and June 2025, according to official figures from the Ministry of Justice. This unprecedented move forms part of a wider emergency effort to ease severe overcrowding in the prison estate.
Prisons in England and Wales were teetering on capacity, with the total population reaching around 88,000 – just below operational capacity – and a crowding rate of 23.6 % in the year to March 2024. Faced with a nearly full male prison estate and only about 100 spaces remaining at one point, the then-Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, warned that without the scheme the “criminal justice system” risked collapse and law and order a “total breakdown”.
Under the scheme, eligible inmates serving fixed-term sentences may be released after serving 40 % of their term instead of the previously typical 50 %. The move replaced an earlier scheme under the previous government, which released 13,325 inmates between October 2023 and September 2024.
Profile of those released early
Of the 38,042 released under the scheme, 34,322 were British nationals and 3,644 were foreign nationals; 66 had no nationality recorded. Around 10,879 were serving sentences of six months or less, and another 5,241 were serving between six and 12 months. The largest age group among those released were aged 30-39, followed by 40-49 and then 25-29.
Impacts and rising risks
Though the scheme provided immediate relief to overcrowded jails, it has also triggered concerns. The number of recalls — offenders re-imprisoned after licence breaches — climbed to 11,041 in April-June 2025 (from 9,782 year-on-year, and 6,814 in the same period in 2023). Prison staff and watchdogs say the early release programme has contributed to greater “comings and goings” in the penal estate.
In one high-profile case, migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu was mistakenly freed from HMP Chelmsford, triggering a 48-hour manhunt before re-arrest. This prompted an independent investigation, with the Chief Inspector of Prisons, Charlie Taylor, citing inexperienced staff and high churn as aggravating factors.
System under better lens
Overcrowding in England and Wales is a long-standing pressure point. The crowding rate rose from 22.9 % to 23.6 % in the year to March 2024, and private prisons consistently had higher rates (26.9 %) than public ones (22.7 %) in that period. The number of prisoners held on remand has surged 84 % since 2019, and recalls now account for some 18 % of the sentenced prison population.
Next steps: reforms to secure future stability
The Ministry of Justice has emphasised that public protection remains the priority and that strict licence conditions (such as tagging and exclusion zones) apply to early-released offenders. A major build-out of new capacity is also in train: 14,000 additional prison places are planned, with 2,500 already opened since July.
Moreover, landmark sentencing reforms have been introduced to change how release is earned under the early prison release scheme. Instead of automatic release at 40 %, prisoners will need to engage in work, training or education and maintain good behaviour. Under the new model, they must serve at least one-third of their sentence before qualifying, and could face longer terms for misbehaviour.
The early prison release scheme has delivered rapid capacity relief for England and Wales’ overstretched prison system, but the transitional risks – higher recalls, staff shortages, and public safety concerns – underline that it is not a long-term solution. The accompanying reforms in sentencing and prison building signal the government’s intention to shift from crisis mode to a more sustainable footing.
