Nearly half of the 6.23 million people on the NHS waiting list in England have not received a single consultation or diagnostic test since being referred by their GP, according to new NHS England data. The shocking figures reveal that 2.99 million people—48% of the waiting list—remain completely unseen, sparking warnings of an “invisible crisis” in healthcare.
This revelation undermines Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pledge to treat 92% of patients within 18 weeks by 2029. The NHS has not met that target since 2015, and as of May, only 61% of patients were treated on time.
Millions Left Without First Appointment
The new figures were analyzed by health data firm MBI Health, which supports multiple NHS trusts in tackling delays. Founder Barry Mulholland, a former NHS manager, described the 3 million patients with no clinical contact as the “frontlog” rather than the backlog, warning that achieving the 18-week treatment goal is impossible unless these unseen patients are prioritized.
A third of those 3 million—about 1 million patients—have already waited more than 18 weeks without any care, intensifying pressure on the NHS to reform the way patients enter the system.
‘Staggering Scale’ of NHS Waiting List Crisis
Rachel Power, CEO of the Patients Association, described the scale as “staggering,” saying: “That’s not a healthcare service; that’s a breakdown. These aren’t just statistics. They’re people in pain, checking their phones daily for hospital calls that never come.”
MBI’s findings also highlight that key specialities such as ENT, orthopaedics, eye care, gastroenterology, and gynaecology have the highest percentages of unseen patients—ranging from 67% to 75%.
NHS Confirms Extent of Delays
NHS England confirmed that 64% of the 7.3 million pending treatments are for patients who haven’t had a first consultation or test. Of these, 1.6 million have already waited more than the supposed 18-week maximum.
A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care didn’t address the 3 million figure directly but said: “We’ve reduced the waiting list by over 260,000 since July 2024 and delivered 4.6 million appointments—more than double our original promise.”
Liberal Democrat health spokesperson Alison Bennett called the figures “harrowing,” blaming long-standing Conservative mismanagement of the NHS. “Millions remain in limbo while their health deteriorates. It’s unacceptable,” she said, urging systemic reform, including in social care, to relieve hospital pressure.
Experts Call for Prioritizing First Contact
Mulholland concluded that prioritizing early access and capturing better data could ease the crisis: “If we focus on giving those waiting patients their first contact, we can bring down the elective backlog and improve lives.”
