The UK’s drive towards net zero emissions could be seriously undermined by tougher immigration rules, a new report has warned, raising concerns over potential labour shortages in key green industries.
According to the Centre for European Reform (CER), over half of the UK’s foreign-born green workforce would not meet the stricter visa requirements set out in Labour’s recent immigration white paper. The report estimates that 260,000 out of 465,000 foreign-born workers in green jobs would have been blocked under the new criteria.
Labour’s proposals include increasing the minimum qualification for skilled worker visas from A-level equivalent to a degree and retaining the £38,700 salary threshold introduced by the previous Conservative government.
John Springford, associate fellow at CER, warned that these policies could raise the cost of transitioning to green energy. He noted that if labour shortages push up the cost of decarbonising homes, fewer households will be able to afford energy-efficient upgrades such as insulation or heat pumps.
Using data from the Office for National Statistics, the CER defines green jobs as roles where more than a third of a worker’s time is spent on green tasks. Many of these roles are found within the construction sector, which plays a critical role in retrofitting homes with low-carbon technologies.
The report also casts doubt on the government’s ability to meet its housebuilding target of 1.5 million homes by the end of the current parliament. Construction is particularly vulnerable due to its physical demands, seasonal nature, and high staff turnover.
The white paper also outlined plans to replace the existing immigration salary list with a new “temporary shortage list”, allowing certain roles to bypass standard requirements. However, industries using the list would be required to demonstrate plans to train and recruit UK-based workers.
The CER warned that while the list could serve as a short-term solution, it may leave visa holders at risk of exploitation if they are unable to switch to other roles due to high thresholds. This has already occurred in the social care sector, where migrant workers on health and care visas have been vulnerable to poor working conditions and abusive employers.
Springford urged the government to remain alert to workforce gaps in industries essential to its green and housing ambitions. He suggested relaxing visa rules where necessary but cautioned that too many exemptions could complicate the system.
Among the alternative proposals is the introduction of dedicated “green visas” to support the UK’s 2050 net zero target. The report also recommends revisiting the overall salary and skills thresholds to ensure that critical sectors remain staffed.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled the immigration crackdown last month, vowing to reverse what he called a broken approach to migration under Conservative leadership. Net migration hit record highs in 2023, exceeding 900,000 before dropping to 431,000 in 2024 following tighter rules.
Starmer has pledged that net migration will fall significantly under Labour’s new policy.
However, economists have raised concerns that sharply reduced migration could lead to lower economic growth, prompting the Office for Budget Responsibility to revise its forecasts downward.
The government has yet to respond to the findings in the CER report.
