The UK’s social care system needs at least £3.4 billion in additional funding by 2028/29 to prevent further decline, according to a new analysis by the Health Foundation think tank.
Without this minimum investment, essential services risk worsening, leaving vulnerable individuals without adequate support.
The Health Foundation warns that political leaders must take immediate steps to secure the future of adult social care. It has urged the Government to make a strong commitment in the upcoming spending review, including an initial investment that signals serious intent to reform the sector.
Rising costs for employers and mounting demand are placing increasing pressure on the system. The think tank estimates that £3.4 billion is the minimum amount required to stabilise social care by 2028/29. This figure could grow to £9.1 billion by 2034/35.
To improve access and address cost pressures more comprehensively, a higher investment of £6.4 billion would be necessary by 2028/29, increasing to £12.7 billion by 2034/35. For a broader package that includes meeting demand, boosting pay, and improving access, the figure rises to £8.7 billion, potentially reaching £15.4 billion within a decade.
The Health Foundation stresses that current provision remains fragile due to decades of underfunding and political neglect.
The spending review presents a critical opportunity to invest in meaningful reform that supports care workers, eases pressure on unpaid carers, and strengthens the NHS by reducing avoidable hospital demand.
This analysis comes just days after the launch of the Casey Commission, tasked with overhauling adult social care in England.
The commission’s first recommendations are expected in 2026, with wider reforms phased in over ten years, a timeline that has raised concern among sector leaders who say urgent action is needed now, not in a decade.
Nurses at the Royal College of Nursing’s annual congress in Liverpool also joined the call for immediate investment in social care. They warned of a looming crisis caused by rising workforce shortages, limited pay, and the recent tightening of immigration rules that threaten to further reduce staff numbers.
Campaigners say that funding adult social care should be treated as a national priority, not a delayed ambition. Investing now would deliver better value for money in the long term and help ensure dignity and support for vulnerable people across the UK.
The Department of Health and Social Care has highlighted an additional £3.7 billion made available this year, and confirmed that the Government’s reform plan is already in motion. It also pointed to the work of Baroness Casey, who is leading the independent commission aiming to build consensus on long-term improvements to adult care.
Despite these assurances, the Health Foundation and frontline professionals continue to stress the need for urgent, sustained investment—warning that without it, social care will remain under strain, placing further burden on hospitals, families, and communities.
