Efforts by the UK government to resolve the growing prison crisis may fail without significant investment in the probation service, the probation officers’ union has warned. Ian Lawrence, general secretary of Napo, said proposals to scrap short-term sentences and strengthen community-based rehabilitation would be ineffective if frontline probation staff remained overstretched and underfunded.
Lawrence expressed support for the upcoming sentencing review led by former Conservative Justice Secretary David Gauke, which is expected to recommend alternatives to short custodial sentences. However, he cautioned that these reforms “may come to little effect” unless the government makes “bold investment decisions” to support the probation infrastructure.
Overworked Staff and Funding Gaps Threaten Community Sentencing
The Ministry of Justice acknowledged the severe strain on the probation service due to systemic challenges across the justice system. In response, the government is recruiting 1,300 trainee probation officers and investing £8 million in new technology to reduce administrative workload.
Yet Lawrence warned that with a 12% real-terms fall in prisons and probation funding since 2007–08, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, any further cuts could cripple the service. He added that without sufficient community support for offenders, reoffending rates would climb, ultimately costing the taxpayer millions.
“If probation officers can’t properly supervise community sentences, offenders are more likely to end up back in prison. It’s a cycle that defeats the purpose of reform,” Lawrence said.
Justice Reforms at Risk Ahead of Spending Review
Gauke’s sentencing review is expected to be published this month, ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending plans in June. Reeves has already announced efficiency savings of £6.1 billion per year by 2030, but has not revealed which departments will face reductions.
Lawrence urged ministers to recognise the probation service’s critical role in criminal justice reform. He warned that cutting the Ministry of Justice budget could sabotage the government’s aim to reduce the prison population and improve rehabilitation outcomes.
Watchdog Highlights Staffing Crisis and Pay Dispute
A national inspection report recently flagged severe staffing shortages and unsustainable workloads in some regions. Napo is currently in a pay dispute with the prison and probation service, demanding a 12% wage increase for staff—well above the government’s advised public sector increases.
Lawrence did not rule out industrial action if the government’s pay offer falls short. “Senior leaders must make ministers aware of how serious this crisis is,” he said. “We’re heading towards a breaking point.”
In a February speech, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood outlined plans to boost recruitment and invest in digital tools, but acknowledged the workload crisis facing probation staff.
