More than 4,500 individuals in England and Wales could request help to end their lives annually within a decade if a proposed assisted dying law is enacted, according to newly released government figures.
The legislation, which permits terminally ill adults to seek voluntary assisted death, narrowly passed its second reading in Parliament last year following a deeply emotive debate. A final vote by MPs later this month will determine whether the bill becomes law.
The Department of Health and Social Care published a 149-page impact assessment late on Friday, estimating that around 800 people could opt for assisted dying in the first year alone. This figure is projected to increase significantly over time, reaching up to 4,559 cases per year by the tenth year of implementation.
Critics of the proposal, which mirrors similar legislation already in place in countries such as Canada and New Zealand, have voiced concerns that the uptake could be far greater than initially anticipated.
The impact report, commissioned by Health Secretary Wes Streeting, also explored the financial implications for the NHS. It suggests potential savings of up to £10.3 million in the initial year, growing to nearly £60 million by year ten, as the scheme expands.
Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, who introduced the bill, acknowledged that due to recent amendments, the law may not take effect until 2029—even if it secures final approval this year.
One major amendment includes scrapping the original requirement for a High Court judge to authorise each case. Instead, a designated oversight panel—featuring legal experts such as King’s Counsel—will assess applications to ensure appropriate scrutiny.
The government’s report estimates that running the oversight panels and appointing a Voluntary Assisted Dying Commissioner will cost between £10.9 million and £13.6 million annually.
A spokesperson from the Department of Health and Social Care stated: “The government maintains a neutral position on assisted dying and the legislative progress of the Terminally Ill Adults End of Life Bill.”
